MHP transaction volume ?

Hello all!

Some of you may know me - others will not. I am just a guy who helps folks identify and deal with environmental problems when buying commercial real estate, including MHP's.

I am hoping to check the temperature of this group on a few things - primarily so that I can determine what 2010 might look for my business. Not necessarily the most scientific survey in the world, but more or less your off-the-cuff gut feeling about things.

Can you help with some or all of these?

1) Do you think MHP transaction volume has been up, down, steady, or spotty? Why?

2) Are things better or worse in various parts of the country? Why?

3) What effect - if any - is the current economic situation having on deals?

4) Do you think it has been harder to get financing lately?

5) Most importantly, what do you think the future holds for the MHP Industry? Why?

Thanks in advance for any responses!!

Best Regards,

Dave VerSluis
dversluis@sierraconsultants.net
www.sierraconsultants.net
(616) 678-5157



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 02/04/2010 02:21PM by davidversluis.

Just in my humble opinion.
If I was you I would adjust my business model to be a consultant for banks and mortgage companies.
In the coming year there is going too be the biggest uptick of commercial loan foreclosures and commercial property repos in history. Banks are going to inherit trillions of dollars of real estate that they don't understand and I suspect large numbers of these will have environmental problems tagging along.
Now is the time to educate these institutions about the legal risks they face when they get these properties and set yourself up as an expert consultant.
This is going to be huge.
Personally I don't think you will get much action from private investors buying at retail like in the past. There is going to be a fire sale.

Dave,

Transaction volume (defined as deals closed) is definitely lower than it has been historically, due to the near absence of financing from the large lenders of the past. Everyone is having to adapt to local lenders and seller carry exclusively.

Jobolanger is correct that the largest amount of distressed real estate in history is about to hit the market, and should be the best buying opportunity since the Great Depression -- if you have the cash or borrowing ability to make it happen. Once this occurs, I see a feeding frenzy of all sorts of current park operators and investors buying parks for 10 cents on the dollar. But I can't predict when exactly that's going to happen, as the Obama administration is deliberately letting banks sit on non-performing commerical loans so as not to spook the economy. But at some point they will have to dump them.

We tell everyone that they must have a Phase I, and, additionally, that they must get a handle on any private water and sewer system. So it really is just going to be a matter of when the transaction number goes up again. What you have is a commodity that everyone has to buy every time they acquire a property (unless they're an idiot).

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Thanks guys. There are a lot of idiots out there.

Banks have traditionally been a core market for me, and things got so dry on the lending side that I have been trying to get into the workout and foreclosure aspect - but it's like a completely different universe.

Thats also part of the reason I got into the MHP end of things - to diversify away from a deteriorating set of market drivers in the lending world.

I guess we shall see how long it will take for this big wave to hit. From what I can see there is no end to bailout money. I am just a small outfit, so I can only hang on for so long.

Best Regards,

Dave VerSluis
dversluis@sierraconsultants.net
www.sierraconsultants.net
(616) 678-5157

Thanks guys....I have been following up on your advice re the commercial bubble and I think the consensus is that it is about to hit. SO I am buying lunches for Special Asset " bankers and attorneys as fast as I can! Hopefully it will work out!

Thanks again, you guys are great. I am really glad to be a part of this group, you have all been very personable and helpful - not just to me, but I see it for others also in the seminars etc that I have been part of. No wonder you are successful. It's fun to work with this kind of people.


Best Regards,

Dave VerSluis
dversluis@sierraconsultants.net
www.sierraconsultants.net
(616) 678-5157